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With the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget due on 26 November 2025, the speculation mill is in full swing. Although official details are tightly held until the day, a range of credible reports suggest what could be on the horizon. Below we’ve grouped a few of the most discussed rumours into two key areas, for small business owners and for private tax clients, along with our take on how likely they are to appear.
For Small Business Owners
1. VAT Threshold – Possible Reduction
One of the most talked-about topics is a potential lowering of the VAT registration threshold (currently around £90,000) with some reports suggesting a drop to £60,000 or even £30,000. The Treasury is said to be ‘modelling’ this move to widen the tax base and boost revenues.
However, advisers and trade bodies have warned that this could increase admin and compliance costs for microbusinesses and potentially push up inflation. While it’s being discussed seriously, it remains uncertain. We’d currently rate this as possible but not probable.
Likelihood: 5/10
2. Corporation Tax and Reliefs
Although the headline rate of corporation tax is unlikely to rise again so soon, some reliefs and allowances could be trimmed. Rumours include tightening of the full expensing regime or changing capital allowance rates. For smaller companies, watch for adjustments to R&D credits or energy-efficiency incentives.
Likelihood: 6/10
3. Income Tax and National Insurance – Threshold Freezes
It looks increasingly likely that personal and higher-rate tax thresholds will remain frozen for longer, pulling more business owners into higher tax bands. This ‘fiscal drag’ is a stealthy way to raise revenue without changing tax rates.
If you’re operating through a limited company and pay yourself via salary and dividends, you should review remuneration strategy post budget. Please get in touch to discuss this further.
Likelihood: 8/10
4. Business Rates and Property Taxes
Reform of business rates and local property taxes is under review. Some proposals include linking rates more closely to turnover or digital sales and reducing reliefs for empty or under-used properties. This area may see pilot schemes before any national rollout.
Likelihood: 6/10
For Private Tax Clients
1. Capital Gains Tax (CGT) Reforms
Rumours persist that the Chancellor may align CGT rates more closely with income tax or remove certain reliefs on property and share sales. This could mean higher bills for those selling second homes, rental properties or businesses.
While a full alignment seems unlikely overnight, partial changes or reduced exemptions are plausible.
Likelihood: 6/10
2. Inheritance Tax (IHT) Tightening
Speculation continues around reforming IHT, potentially reducing lifetime gift allowances or capping total reliefs. Agricultural and business property reliefs could also come under review.
Families with estates over the nil-rate band may want to revisit succession plans should changes be made in this budget.
Likelihood: 6/10
3. Pension Tax Relief Adjustments
Pension relief remains a target area. One rumour points to introducing a flat-rate of tax relief (for example, 30%) to replace the current system that favours higher earners.
Though politically sensitive, this is seen as a “fairness” measure that could raise significant revenue.
Likelihood: 5/10
4. ISA Changes and Wealth Taxes
Reports suggest possible reductions to ISA allowances or new taxes on investment income. While the likelihood of major changes is low, higher earners should monitor this space closely.
'Stealth' adjustments to savings or dividend taxation could still appear under the radar.
Likelihood: 4/10
5. Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) Reform
There’s growing speculation that the Stamp Duty Land Tax system could face major reform in the November Budget. A number of sources suggest several possible directions
- A switch from buyer-paid to seller-paid tax for homes above certain thresholds (e.g. £500,000+), designed to help first-time buyers enter the market.
- An annual property tax replacing SDLT for higher-value homes, or a hybrid system where owners of more expensive properties pay an ongoing charge instead of a one-off duty.
- Adjusted SDLT bands and reliefs, particularly for additional properties, second homes, or buy-to-lets. First-time buyer reliefs may also be narrowed or re-targeted.
Likelihood: 6/10
The Bigger Picture
The government faces a tough balancing act: delivering growth while repairing public finances. Having pledged not to raise headline income tax, VAT or employee NI for 'working people', ministers may instead look to less visible levers - freezing thresholds, tightening reliefs and reforming asset-based taxes.
How We Can Help
Our team will be monitoring the Budget closely and publishing a same-day summary of confirmed measures followed by an in-depth report the following day. If you have any specific concerns or questions on how this affects your business or personal tax circumstances, please get in touch with your client manager.
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